AMWINS Shares Q3 2025 Economic Outlook

A number of U.S. economic indicators have weakened in recent months, while trade and tariff risks continue to add uncertainty to the economic outlook and financial markets. On the upside, the July 2025 IMF growth forecasts were revised up to reflect that global GDP is likely to rise by 3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 after growing 3.3% in 2024.

U.S. Real GDP growth expanded in Q2 2025 by 3%, following a contraction of –0.5% in Q1. The contraction in Q1 and rebound in Q2 were driven largely by import swings, as companies boosted imports in Q1 to front-run the U.S. tariff announcements on April 2, but then allowed imports to fall sharply in Q2. Consumption was 69% of Q2 2025 GDP, but it added only around one percentage point of the 3% Q2 growth rate. The U.S. labor market has been supporting growth, but job growth has slowed, with the three-month average of net nonfarm payroll gains falling to just 35,000 in July 2025. On the upside, wages have been strong and are up over $8 per hour since January 2020, while the unemployment rate was a low 4.1% in July, and there were over 7.4 million open jobs in June. U.S. consumer debt delinquencies rose to 4.41% in Q2 2025, which was the highest percentage since Q1 2020. However, it is still a relatively low percentage.

Q3-2025-economic-overview---presented-by-amwins-prestige-economics