NOAA Predicts Sixth Above-Average Hurricane Season

May 27, 2021

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast, which calls for 13 to 20 named storms total, six to 10 of which will be hurricanes and three to five of those will be major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. All of those categories are above the average of 14 total named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Meanwhile, Colorado State University (CSU) called for 17 total named storms and eight hurricanes. “The primary reasons why we’re going above average is the low likelihood of a significant El Niño event and the relative warmth in the tropical (Atlantic) but especially the subtropical eastern Atlantic,” said Phil Klotzbach of CSU. At least one named tropical system has formed in the Atlantic prior to June 1 — the official start of the season — every year for the past six years.